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Experts Examine the Road Next Traveled Will your 2015 Toyota be a hybrid? Will you buy your 2030 Ford based on horsepower or processing speed? In 2040, will you custom-design a reconfigurable car-truck-sport utility vehicle on your laptop? With so many variables, it's impossible to predict how the pieces and parts of auto-making will come together. Specs for future cars must integrate engineering breakthroughs, safety concerns, new materials and production methods, government regulations, informatics (the gathering, manipulating, and classifying of recorded information), and, most unpredictably of all, what the public wants. What you see down the road depends on what you are trained to examine, so we asked an engineer, a second-generation designer, and a transportation analyst to share their perspectives. Taken together, their insights give us a fleeting glimpse of the future taking shape. The Engineer: John Heywood Professor of Mechanical Engineering Director of MIT's Sloan Automotive Laboratory For 35 years, John Heywood has been an engineer and researcher at MIT. He has been a driving enthusiast for even longer. As director of the Sloan Automotive Laboratory, his work focuses on improving engines and fuels. He recently led an MIT assessment of hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles. According to Heywood, hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles have the long-term potential to reduce both carbon dioxide emissions and our dependence on petroleum, but they are far from the only alternative. Hybrids enjoy a head start in the marketplace. More than 35,000 hybrids, which run on a combination of battery-powered, self-charging electric motors and gas engines, were sold in 2002. Experts predict hybrid sales will double, as SUVs and pickup trucks hit the market. The Sloan Automotive Laboratory also is getting more mileage out of existing technology. Working with the Department of Energy and an industry partner, they are developing a gasoline engine that runs with the efficiency of a diesel. Fuel is only part of the performance equation. Engine lubrication is the subject of long-range research at MIT as well. According to Heywood, "In typical urban-suburban driving, half the work of the piston is required just to overcome engine friction. If we reduce friction, we can dramatically reduce oil consumption. It's not glamorous, but there is a measurable benefit." Although there are significant challenges ahead, Heywood said informal exchange between research teams, as well as more formal technology transfer, benefits all drivers. One example of this collaborative spirit is USCAR, the U.S. Council for Automotive Research. Through this partnership, the U.S. Department of Energy works with executives from DaimlerChrysler Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and General Motors Corporation to develop petroleum-free cars and light trucks. We've all felt the pain at the pump as prices rise, but Heywood points out that gas guzzling has a high environmental cost. "Petroleum has a negative impact when we take it out of the ground, when we transport it, when we process it, and in the emissions that lead to climate change," Heywood said. As he sees it, automakers must give drivers cars that are environmentally responsible, while also delivering a pleasurable driving experience. "Nobody wants to degrade the driving experience," Heywood said. "But as consumers, we have to ask ourselves: How big an engine do we need if we spend a lot of our time on the road stuck in a line of cars? Do we insist on quick acceleration from 0-60, or do we appreciate things like responsiveness and handling?" The Big Picture? "We love our vehicles, but we can moderate our activities and still have lots of fun driving," Heywood surmised. The Designer: Jeff Teague President of Teague Design International Co-founder of the automotive design program at San Francisco Academy of Arts Looking over the shoulder of his father, design icon Dick Teague (a former executive at GM and AMC), Jeff Teague grew up to be a respected automotive designer in his own right. Today, he is a consultant to Kia, Hyundai, and Subaru and a mentor to young designers. Along with Dick and Elisa Stevens, Teague co-founded the automotive design program at San Francisco Academy of Arts. He also judges international design competitions for Motor Trend. When Teague pops the hypothetical hood, he sees a recognizable version of today's gasoline-powered internal combustion engines for at least the next 20 years. To tomorrow's designers, it's the micro things that matter. "Cars will perform more extra-automotive functions, with better GPS navigation, wireless Internet access, warning radars, heads-up thermal image displays for foggy nights, and smart collision-avoidance cruise control," Teague said. Teague suggests this gadget-centric approach reflects the fact that interactive media and computer gaming influence young designers, whereas their elders were inspired by aeronautics and industrial design. He takes young designers on a field trip to Blackhawk Automotive Museum because many of his students are virtually unaware of what cars looked like before the 1980s. Explained Teague, "They see the gull-wing doors on a 300SI Mercedes and murmur, 'radical.'" Teague feels cyber-crafting by those who have never picked up a wrench demonstrates less interest in horsepower and ease of handling, but an absolute passion for the ability to reconfigure a car. Teague said, "Students design cars from the inside out, as living spaces or environments." This dovetails with shopping trends. Teague notes that tire kicking on the lot has given way to Web site visits and virtual tours by consumers who experience a vehicle from the inside out, before ever turning a key. When students do focus on performance, they don't let concerns for safety or durability hold them back. They have re-invented drag racing. "These kids spend their money on high-end microprocessors rather than build jalopies from scratch, the way generations of Southern Californian hot-rodders did," Teague said. Today's "Mulholland racers" shop for aftermarket and exhaust components and customized computer chips to boost the horsepower of small, speed-tuned Japanese coupes. Their modifications can add 60 or 80 horsepower to the car, but the car will probably run just 10,000 miles before throwing a rod. "It's the automotive design equivalent of anabolic steroids," said Teague. The Big Picture? "Kids studying design don't know or care what Harley Earl once did," Teague opined. "They're more forward-looking, as a direct result of their accelerated, video-game-based frame of reference." The Analyst: Robert Larsen Director of the Center for Transportation Research Argonne National Laboratory The Center for Transportation Research is a Department-of-Energy-funded research and development organization that examines the impact of transportation technology on the environment and the culture. According to Robert Larsen, who directs a staff that includes economists, social scientists, planners, and scientists, we can expect hydrogen-cell-powered vehicles, gas-electric hybrids, ethanol-powered cars, and electric vehicles to share the road ahead. "We'll see more diversity of vehicles, fuel, and power sources in the near future," Larsen said. "At the same time, we're not looking to go backwards in terms of vehicle performance and functionality and all that good stuff. We are going to build on our accomplishments in those areas." But in an upgrade to the chicken-egg riddle, which comes first, the market demand or the technology to satisfy it? "People will be able to tailor their vehicles to their own requirements. In turn, the marketplace will help define and create those requirements as technology changes," predicted Larsen. If he is correct, maybe honking horns and rude gestures will give way to nasty instant messages, since radar-based cruise control will free drivers to focus on the keyboard and not the dashboard. "There are already vehicles that keep themselves on the road, proceeding to their pre-designated destinations without the driver having to steer or regulate the throttle or the brakes," Larsen pointed out. Of course this "look, Ma, no hands" scenario will only play out on a large scale if our highway infrastructure is modernized, an undertaking nearly as challenging as re-tooling the automotive industry. As Larsen sees it, "You run into a host of political and economic variables. Still, people's excitement about new technologies is the first step toward funding new technologies. The basic technology for a lot of exciting stuff exists, and the unforeseen advantages of new technologies have a way of justifying previously unacceptable costs." It's not clear how much automation drivers want. However, "We all want cheaper, cleaner, safer, and environmentally responsible vehicles that approximate the performance of the cars we drive now," Larsen said. "The market is highly motivated to get those vehicles into production." The Big Picture? "The future of transportation will be decided by market forces, not 'technocrats,'" Larsen concluded. "As transportation analysts, our job is to understand market forces, then implement inevitable change with the greatest economy and efficiency." |
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