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AAA Predicts Slight Decrease in Fourth of July Travel

Indianapolis, IN (June 26, 2008) – For the first time this decade, AAA anticipates a decline in the number of Americans who will travel during the upcoming Fourth of July holiday period. North America’s largest motoring and leisure travel organization projects 40.45 million American residents will travel 50 miles or more from home during the July 4th weekend, down 1.3 percent, or nearly 550,000 Americans, from the 41 million who traveled last year. This is the second consecutive travel holiday in 2008 where a year-to-year decrease has been forecasted. AAA also projected a nearly one percent drop in Memorial Day travel this past May.

Research indicates that more than 34.2 million Americans (almost 85 percent of all holiday travelers) intend to travel by automobile, a 1.2 percent decrease from the 34.6 million people who drove to their holiday destinations last year.

Approximately 4.54 million Americans (11 percent of holiday travelers) expect to travel by airplane, a 2.3 percent decrease from the 4.64 million who flew last year. Nearly 1.7 million plan to travel by train, bus or other mode of transportation.

Automobile travelers across much of the country will have to contend with gasoline prices at or above $4 a gallon so motorists are encouraged to visit AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report (www.fuelgaugereport.com) and Fuel Cost Calculator (www.fuelcostcalculator.com) for useful budgetary planning assistance.

AAA’s Leisure Travel Index (LTI), which is based on available rates this holiday, reveals that Fourth of July travelers can expect to pay more in other areas as well. For instance, air fares during the holiday weekend have increased 13 percent over last year and it’s important to note that many airlines now charge fees for checked baggage and other services that were previously complimentary. However, rates for AAA 3 Diamond hotels are unchanged from last year’s Fourth of July holiday travel period.

Information for Fourth of July weekend holiday travel projections is derived from the Travel Industry Association’s (TIA) Holiday Travel Forecast Model. The model was developed based on consumer travel intentions and TIA’s quarterly travel forecast data. The travel intentions data are collected through an online survey of over 2,000 adults nationwide, supplemented by an additional 6,500 Americans surveyed from the top 10 states of travel origin in the United States. Historical travel volume and other economic data such as GDP, disposable income, employment and travel costs (including fuel prices) are also incorporated into the model. Analysis of the data and the forecasts are produced by the Travel Industry Association, which conducts special research for AAA.

2008

• Projected Total Number of July 4th Travelers:  40.4 million (13.3% of U.S. population)
• Projected Number of July 4th Travelers by Auto/Truck/RV:  34.2 million (11.3% of U.S. population)
• Projected Number of July 4th Travelers by Air:  4.5 million (1.5% of U.S. population)

2007

• Total Number of July 4th Travelers:  41.0 million (13.6% of U.S. population)
• Total Number of July 4th Travelers by Auto/Truck/RV:  34.6 million (11.5% of U.S. population)
• Total Number of July 4th Travelers by Air:  4.6 million (1.5% of U.S. population)

Note: Figures are rounded to one decimal place. The exact percentage change may not be reflected in the volume comparisons. Air travelers are counted only once for each round-trip and, therefore, the estimates above are not directly comparable to estimates of enplanements published by the Air Transport Association. 

Source:  Travel Industry Association/AAA

July 4th Travelers 2000-2008f (Total Travelers)

 Source:  Travel Industry Association/AAA

 

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